When Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000, his Job One was to power Russia from economic irrelevance to economic superstardom by ensuring that every one of the 550 million European middle class consumers next door had something that said “Made in Russia” on it. Instead, he destroyed his position on his southern border with the Ukraine, alienating all those rich Europeans for good, and thrust Russia into a lose-lose hell in Syria that it cannot afford and can never escape. (See Publius, Managing Russia’s Implosion, February 24, 2016).
Now, he has allowed Bashar al-Assad, ruler of the part of Syria Russia controls, to foreclose all his remaining options.
Brilliant, Vladimir old chap. Absolutely brilliant. Just what every Canadian would do with the giant U.S. market opportunity next door…
Obama quite naturally encouraged a much-diminished Putin to dig ever deeper into the Syrian morass. Putin, in a fit of utter madness, obliged him at every opportunity (see Publius, Putin the Small Stumbles in Syria, October 4, 2016).
Putin took Obama’s cynical manipulation of him as weakness (don’t ask) and allowed Assad, his puppet president of what is left of Syria, to keep some of the chemical weapons of which Putin had guaranteed in 2013 under a U.N. resolution that Assad would rid himself.
On April 4, Assad used these weapons on the town of Khan Shaykhun, killing 74 and injuring 557.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson followed Publius’ line precisely, saying, "It is unclear whether Russia failed to take this obligation seriously and whether Russia has been incompetent. But this distinction doesn't much matter to the dead. We can't let this happen again."
At Khan Shaykhun, Putin allowed Assad to bolt shut his Syria exits. Now Putin has no way out. The U.S. responded to Assad’s chemical weapons attack with a rain of cruise missiles on a Syrian airbase, something Putin showed himself powerless to stop and which cost the U.S. precisely nothing. And which the U.S. doesn’t have to follow up until Assad’s next misstep which Putin will be just as powerless to stop.
So, Putin is locked into what is left of Syria which, as with the rest of the Middle East, has dissolved into its seventh century outlines. He is trying to shore up a Treaty of Versailles structure that vanished years ago and to which Russia was not a party. Why you would even consider something so stupid is unknowable.
Putin cannot surrender his Syrian territory now without destroying his presidency. But, if he stays, he is lumbered with endless humiliation at the hands of the U.S., all the costs of supporting Assad and all the costs of rebuilding whatever remains in Assad’s hands. He destroys his presidency. This is stupidity beyond stupidity.
In another fit of genius, Putin worked like crazy to put Don Trump into the White House (see Publius on The Hacksident of the United States, December 20, 2016). He very nearly failed. Don squeaked in by a tiny, weeny 75,000 popular votes spread over three states. Having accomplished this extraordinary feat of political manipulation, one which should have rewarded Putin for many years to come, Putin either encouraged or allowed -- and as Tillerson said, it doesn't matter which -- Assad to flush it down the toilet.
Now, who in their right minds would throw away control over the United States presidency in exchange for the lose-lose hell of Syria? Especially when your GDP is smaller than Italy, your GDP per cap ranks you 50th in the world, your economy is imploding and you have no market share anywhere to speak of. Only an utter fool.
As Publius said in February 2016, “The problem with low-grade fools like Putin being in charge of anything more than a toilet bowl is that they are stupid enough to do things that no half-witted person would think about. And to do them for reasons that no intelligent person would countenance. That makes this fool very dangerous. To himself, to his country and to us.”
As Publius has shown many times, our problem is not Syria. It is what happens when Russia implodes. Just look at a map. This will not be even slightly funny and will cost us big time.
Dumb Don Trump is nowhere near smart enough to think this through. Xi Jinping hasn't proven himself much more adept (see Publius, Xi Jinping Drives China Down, April 3, 2016). And, with Brexit, the EU is in chaos (see Publius, Can the EU Survive? December 2, 2016).
Until leaders of major powers worldwide understand that, in Vladimir Putin, they are dealing with a 21st century Peter III, they will not understand what they are looking at or what the outcomes will be.
Follow-up
April 13, 2017
Only hours after Publius ran this, Putin suffered another staggering loss. Trump turned from declaring NATO obsolete to declaring it no longer obsolete. Putin had worked for years to undermine NATO and to destroy the stability of the countries in which he was supposed to be marketing Russian goods and services. Trump was with him in lock step. For both, eviscerating NATO was a top goal.
Assad's sarin gas attack on Khan Shaykhun turned Trump around and cost Putin everything he had "won."
Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this story is that Putin decided to hang the future of his country on one person, Bashar al-Assad. He did that knowing, as we all do, that Assad was not even remotely in a position to ensure the future of Russia. You don't need to know much more about Putin than that.
June 1, 2017
Putin is following the cry of sauve qui peut that is ripping through the fast failing Trump administration. (See Publius' March 3 Follow Up to President Pence.) With Michael Flynn invoking the Fifth Amendment so he can get immunity and preserve his military pension, Putin knew that his number was up. He just admitted that Russia did try to manipulate the outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. But, hoping to minimize damage to himself, he attributed the effort to "patriotic" Russians. Which, in Kremlinspeak, means the FSB.
If Jared Kushner is told that his position is weak enough that he faces jail time, likely he too will move fast to cut a deal. And that would eliminate any remaining Russian influence for at least a generation. Putin had to move.
Expect the former FBI Director, James Comey, to do everything he can to preserve his future income stream with his testimony. Others in the intelligence community will follow Comey's lead. There is too much at stake for them not to. Unlike Trump, they are not rich and have nothing on which to fall back if things go wrong.
August 1, 2017 Follow Up
How bad can it get for the 'Lil Guy? In retaliation for further Congressional sanctions against Russia, he has just ordered 755 Russians--that's right, Russians--to leave their jobs at the U.S. Mission in Russia. Russia is so weak and has so little leverage that the ONLY thing Putin can do in retaliation for anything anyone does to Russia is to kick his own people in the head. Weird.
April 28, 2020
It's taken a long time for the media to catch up with Publius. But today, Bloomberg finally did. In a piece entitled Putin Has a Syria 'Headache' and The Kremlin's Blaming Assad, Henry Meyer and Ilya Arkhipov describe Vladimir The Small's frustrations. What they don't point out, however, is the immense cost to Russia of rebuilding Syria so that it is a sparkling showcase of Russian power and influence. Leaving Syria as a pile of rubble with half a million dead, 5.2 million refugees, 6.2 million displaced internally and calling this some kind of victory will be seen worldwide for what it is. And Assad's end will be assured. Something that Assad will resist to the death, literally.
Update January 8, 2021
In a massive setback for Putin the Small, Russian security operations launched the Solar Winds hack, the damage from which is growing bigger every day. This hack has, for decades to come, eliminated any trust that anyone could have in Russian goods and services. "Made in Russia" is no longer an option. That Putin allowed this to happen when he so desperately needs market share Europe and the U.S., the combined economies of which are 10X Russia's, is a staggering failure of management.