A quick glance at a map told Publius years ago that the Treaty of Versailles has collapsed and that, end-to-end, most of the Middle East is dissolving into its seventh century outlines. Who can we count on to anchor this mess? Like it or not, there is only Iran.
The hard fact is that we are now self-sufficient in hydrocarbons and have not the slightest remaining strategic interest in the Middle East. Roosevelt’s 1945 oil-for-security deal with the Saudis is dead letter. All the rest is commentary.
Added to this, the sudden drop in the cost of information that unleashed social media is doing to the Middle East what the 1440 Gutenberg press did for Europe: it dissolved every institution in the place. Today there is no Syria, no Lebanon, no Iraq, no Yemen. Just a seething mass of tribes and power mongers. Afghanistan remains the dark space between the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia that it has been since time immemorial. Israel, once the pillar of U.S. interests in the Middle East, has slipped into the indefinable like everyone else. Today it is a soup of Israelis and Palestinians, voters and nonvoters. We have no idea what or whom we are supporting there or why.
All our focus is now the Nine Dash Line, the greatest crisis in our history. To survive, we must focus all our energies there. With the Middle East off the table and the economically self-sufficient Euros inexcusably flailing about in their management of the fast imploding Vladimir Putin, we can—we must—move all our forces into South East Asia. This is the only way to protect our supply lines and keep our communities flourishing and our people employed.
To whom do we turn to prevent the Middle East exploding in our absence and provoking massive turbulence in neighboring Central and South Asia? Iran.
Why Iran? It’s been there for 5,000 years and has seen it all. It’s been up under Cyrus the Great. And down at Gaugamela. It was occupied by the Soviets in living memory. It was one of our staunchest allies until the Shah dropped the ball. It is still there. And it is not melting into the Middle East morass.
Even better, Iranians are educated and want nothing more than a good middle class living. To get it they know that Rule One is free access to the giant and stable US and EU markets. Their long stale Islamist regime is rotting from the inside like the Jacobins after 1789 and everybody knows it. We hold ALL the cards.
Obama got this first and fast. He played Iran’s Jacobin decay like a strad. He lured them with the money and markets they lust after and cut a nuclear deal with them so good that all his opponents could do was sputter in fury. Cost us not a cent. But it positions the only coherent power in its neighborhood, Iran, to be our proxy in the fast melting Middle East.
Better still, while the Euros stumbled around over Putin's serial missteps, the Iranians, who have been around a lot longer and know a collapsed power when they see it, dropped Vladimir like a hot rock and started dealing with Obama directly.
Then, when they wanted a bit more leverage--they are having a very hard time simultaneously managing their flailing Jacobins and leveraging the U.S. market--they allowed the Russians to bomb Syrians from their bases. But, when Vladimir, who is not too bright, bragged about this, they had to kick him out. Ouch!
Once again, Obama comes out on top. And, as always, at no cost to us.
Sorry, Trumpistas, that is the art of the deal. Better get used to it. Because if you don’t, you will pay, and pay and pay.
Follow Up
Check out the piece that Aresu Eqbali and Asa Fitch penned for the Wall Street Journal on August 23, 2016. It shows the amount of leverage we now have in Iran and Putin's growing weakness there. Our problem now is that Don Trump is so developmentally challenged that he could never understand the implications of this development, no matter how slowly it was explained to him.
July 30, 2017
The Iranians handed Dumb Don a ‘uge victory in their May 19th elections, President Zero promptly turned on them, showing as many nations and their leaders as he could in a single move how dumb he is. And how weak he wants us to be.
October 8, 2017
Dumb Don is about to fail Publius' Iran test. The Dumb Guy has not the slightest idea of what he is doing or what we need to get done. Publius carefully laid this Iran trap for Don before the election. He fell right into it like the fool that he is.
May 9, 2018
Dumb Don fell for it. Publius framed a strategy for success here close to two years ago. All Don had to do was to follow the script. Not complicated. Instead, the Dumb guy withdrew from the Iran deal in return for -- as always with him -- zero!
August 6, 2018
Today, the Dumb Dude split with our core alliance NATO on Iran, compounding his losses. He made his Iran screw up global. As always, he favors Vladimir Putin, insisting that en ever-impoverished Iran ally itself with Russia rather than with open global markets. Remember, though, that Dumb Don has no idea of what he is doing and understands none of this.